There were two basic responses I noticed on the left last night to the announcement that John Bolton will be taking over for H.R. McMaster as the president’s National Security Adviser. One was that we are all going to die, and the other was rage at anyone who voted for Trump or whom ever suggested that Hillary Clinton was the greater threat to world peace. For anyone familiar with John Bolton’s record of rabid and irresponsible warmongering, the former response is largely self-explanatory. As to the latter complaint, it comes down to people having credited Trump with sincerity when he consistently attacked the Bush administration for launching the war in Iraq.
All former Bush administration officials should have zero standing on Syria. Iraq was a waste of blood & treasure.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) September 5, 2013
It was widely reported during the campaign that the only recording of Trump having an opinion about the Iraq War before it commenced was a statement of tepid, somewhat reluctant support rather than opposition. That places him close to the mainstream of elite public opinion at the time, but he was lying when he said he was against the war from the beginning.
There is also a strain of thinking on the left that is permanently wary of confrontation with Russia as a result of battles that took place long ago during the Cold War. At its most noble, this is a simple concern that the likeliest way to end life as we know it is for the United States and Russia to go to war and start launching nuclear weapons at each other. Therefore, anyone recommending reconciliation and negotiation with Russia is a more prudent choice than someone advocating we take a hardline stance against their foreign policies.
Russia was keen to exploit this preexisting sentiment on the left, so they amplified the concern that Hillary Clinton was a threat to world peace because of her hawkishness on Syria (Trump said the Russians should handle Syria) and her position on the annexation of Crimea (Trump said the Crimeans were happier with Russian overlords). This argument had a lot of resonance and I suppose it had a degree of substance to it, too. But it no longer makes any sense whatsoever now that Trump has hired John Bolton to advise him on foreign policy. Clinton might have inadvertently caused a shooting war with Russia through some miscalculation, but Bolton is guaranteed to make miscalculations of this sort whenever he opens his mouth.
The shooting wars are much more likely to start with North Korea and Iran than with Russia, but that’s no guarantee that nuclear weapons won’t be used by our forces or by our adversaries. Bolton will move to tear up the nuclear agreement with Iran despite the fact that it was co-signed by all the other permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany. Having made us a pariah on the international stage, he will then try to mobilize the nation for preemptive strikes on Iran that will likely require a nuclear component to be effective in destroying their nuclear program. We will still find ourselves in an actual war with Iran, either directly or by asymmetrical means. A ground war to effect their capitulation will be required, and it’s not likely to go as well as the war in Iraq for a whole host of reasons, including our pariah status.
On North Korea, he is likely to argue that we need to attack now while their missiles are still relatively untested, and to disregard any concerns that much of South Korea will be destroyed in the conflict or that North Korea may still find a way to detonate a nuclear weapon on our allies, our foreign bases, or even on the mainland of the United States. Russia and China will not stand still for such provocations, let alone the unimaginable toll in human lives this will cost.
It’s being reported that John Bolton promised the president that he would not start any wars if he was given responsibility for our foreign policy, but John Bolton wouldn’t want the position if he couldn’t steer the nation toward war with Iran and North Korea. Our only hope is that Trump hired him for his lively performances on Fox News but won’t ultimately follow his advice. But I think that hope is ill-founded because it misunderstands the role of the National Security Advisor as well as the power Bolton will have in the vacuum created by Trump’s lack of engagement and understanding of world affairs.
This is the most dangerous moment for humanity since the Cuban Missile Crisis. There’s nothing Congress or the public can do directly to prevent Bolton from taking his post, but all means for resisting his influence must be employed.
Sorry to disagree, but the VAST majority of the `leftists’ (they are no such thing) that took the positions in your first couple paragraphs did it because of racism and misogyny. They trusted the old white males lies over the old white womans (and the black guy in office) actual actions. It continues to this day, on this site.
Of course they deny it. Very few racists or misogynists believe they are any such thing.
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You do realize that there’s no evidence that Twain ever said that, don’t you?
Just sayin’.
Didn’t Trump reject Bolton at first because he thought his mustache made him look silly? Oh, for simpler times!
So doesn’t it come down to a few of the usual Trump strategies?
I believe that bringing Bolton in will put us all in danger. He hasn’t gone into retirement by any stretch, and he’s been shooting his mouth off for years. He’s a lunatic and Trump will listen to him because he thinks the US has to be an aggressive, chest-pounding bully.
Bolton’s promise to not start any wars was a nudge, nudge, wink, wink promise, I’m sure. We’d better hold onto our hats. We may not make it til November.
He is absolutely safe in his promise. The NSA has no power to `start a war’. Whatever war results, it will be Trump that `started’ it.
Words, and they way they are phrased, matter.
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It’s not his opinions that are the truly dangerous worry. It’s that he knows where the gizmos and gadgets and levers are to make the State work:
The John Bolton I Knew
That’s also mixed in with the fact that Trump likes to defer to people who dominate the room, another formidable trait of Bolton’s:
Nobody, not even DT, can predict what he’s going to do next. Saying we’re all gonna die is defeatist and fear-mongering. I agree, we need to do whatever we can to resist this. Educating ourselves helps. Not panicking helps. We can’t resist if we’re dug into our bunkers. I refuse to view any of this from a bunker mentality. For all we know DT might end up hating Bolton more than anyone he’s ever met, and dump him in short order.
I find this likely. By all appearances Bolton loves to hector. Trump hated McMaster because McMaster treated him like an idiot, and lectured him.
That sounds just like Bolton.
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It took me a minute to go back and find it but this New York magazine piece basically makes the point you’re making, that Trump will sour on Bolton’s style. We can only hope.
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/03/john-bolton-is-a-terrible-fit-for-his-new-job.html
It seems like Hope is all we have, and all we will have for a long time.
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I’ve seen some take a third option:
Find a Democrat with a bad foreign policy position.
Assume that position is shared by the usual hate-figures like Clinton and Pelosi and (somehow) the DNC. In fact, might as well throw in the whole Democratic party.
Claim the nation will be just as warmongering under Dems as it is under Trump and John Fucking Bolton. No no, that would be too crazy. Better not even mention Trump and Bolton.
I saw a fourth option!
Rage at anyone who supported Clinton because she wasn’t able to crush a spewing shithole like Donald Trump to such an extent that even Comey, the NYT, and the Russians couldn’t save him.
Of course there is always the fallback option, used throughout history to obscure and camouflage….. blame the Jew .
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To that point, why exactly would Trump want Bolton in that position unless he wanted war with Iran or N.Korea? Mustache be damned, Bolton’s stated positions on Russia alone should be more than enough to turn Trump off.
Is it simply because Trump wanted McMaster gone at all costs, and there wasn’t anybody else willing to take the job? It’d be a plenty dumb reason for hiring someone, but by no means out of character.
This is so fucking scary because Trump doesn’t even understand that this contradicts his desire to negotiate with North Korea or his claims of being against the Iraq invasion or his grudging continuation of the Iran deal.
Bolton is nothing to him but a television voice he likes; he probably has no idea what rôle he played in the Bush administration or even what happened back then; what the internal philosophical struggles were; what “Neocon” means; why the world reacted the way it did.
He said he wouldn’t start any wars. He didn’t say he wouldn’t convince Trump not to start one.
It’s just semantics. Don Corleone saying “I swear on my children that I will not be the one to break the peace we made tonight” when he’s already plotted for Michael to kill the heads of all five families.
but all means for resisting his influence must be employed
With this congress? The Republicans are all in and most of the Democrats seem like they have been either paid to take a dive or too chicken to oppose Trump in their red states. If Democrats in congress really cared about stopping this administration more than angering their donors, they probably shouldn’t have compromised on the budget deal. Maybe we still can get lucky and Trump won’t sign it. The strategy is to paralyze the government so Trump can’t start a war and then wait with our fingers crossed in the hope that Mueller can come through. It’s a pretty weak plan considering that the fate of the world might be in the balance, but at this point what else are they going to do? Send more sternly worded letters threatening to really not cooperate if Trump blows up the world?
This is a little different. (Hopefully.)
Dump already signed it and I think the democrats got a pretty good deal being in the minority party
We didn’t go nuclear during the Cuban Missile Crisis when the then Soviet Union was indeed a direct geopolitical threat to western democracies and the world they were building out of the ashes of WWII.
Compared to that moment, North Korea is a joke and Iran, while an adversary, has proven manageable by sane adults. Like Cuba, the only people jerking off over the idea of conquering Iran are the sons of men who lost fortunes when the Shah was disposed.
We have allies more detrimental to our nation than either of those countries. Certainly neither warrants the deployment of nuclear weapons, unless you’re some Fox watching Evangelical believing the right’s 24/7 WAR OF CIVILIATION!!!! propaganda.
My guess is the first Administration saber rattle that detonates a bomb from whichever side will more likely lead to America’s first Coup de’tat than a high causality, broad theater war led by President Stupid.
We barely avoided going nuclear, only because JFK stood up to Curtis LeMay. I can’t see Trump doing that. He asked three times (in a national security briefing) “why we have” nuclear weapons if we can’t use them.
Agreed it was close, but JFK’s argument won out against the counterargument (no matter its merit) of an influential standing general during what seemed at the time a situation of clear and present danger.
Bolton urging President “Why do we have them?” Stupid to return to Bush-era Bar Fight Picking against that Neocon Christmas Wish List of nations is an entirely different animal.
I don’t think the Joint Chiefs, the American public, nor even a good portion of that 85% conservative support he enjoys are willing to send their children back into an empiric war meat grinder, especially one that could turn nuclear.
Besides, you really think the Orange Shit Gibbon is going to risk his and the Kushner’s international property either from destruction or seizure?
Yes, well said. In fact all of the Chiefs, not just LeMay, were recommending air strikes, followed by invasion.
Later, we learned that the USSR deployed tactical nukes in Cuba, specifically to deal with an amphibious landing. They could be launched at the discretion of local commanders.
Soviet subs also carried nuclear torpedoes, and on at least one occasion, it appears a sub captain wanted to fire his. The flotilla commander, who happened to be aboard that sub, refused to give permission.
The more I learn about October 1962, the more it takes my breath away. JFK deserves credit for his instincts to avoid unnecessary provocations. His team was competent, and the tapes indicate that they were constantly considering second- and third-order effects of their decisions. Even so, there were a thousand ways we could have blundered into war. We were damn lucky.
I have no confidence in a similar level of competence today. A confrontation with Russia in Eastern Europe, or Syria, could lead to a situation in which both sides feel that the only way to maintain their credibility is to escalate to nuclear use. The draft US Nuclear Posture Review contains lots of sophisticated concepts about “sub-strategic” nuclear exchanges and low-yield weapons as “signals” to the other side of a willingness to “escalate to de-escalate.”
This is madness. Once nuclear weapons begin going off near personnel or installations of the US, China, or Russia, escalation will get out of hand. Do our current generation of uniformed and civilian leaders understand the demons they tempt? I fear they do not.
The Russians are said to have a bomb that could destroy an area the size of France. How many would it take to make life uninhabitable on earth?
Just that one bomb.
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I’m watching the price of gold rise.
As Atrios says (tongue-in-cheek I hope) ‘Time to become a prepper’
I grew up during the “duck and cover era,” and had just graduated from college when the Cuban Missile Crisis occurred. This is far scarier to me because not only is there a risk of nuclear war, but very, very serious damage to our democracy.
Right now I am beyond furious with Congress. They need to stand up to this wannabe dictator right now before it’s too late.
I don’t check the American Conservative much any more, but now is a good time to.
http://www.theamericanconservative.com/blogs/ .
The Daniel Larison stuff specifically.
Not a surprise that the chaos and dysfunction in the executive branch continues unabated–indeed Der Trumper openly promises it to his deranged supporters. Chaos is the Trumper style, apparently.
The incompetent white electorate was wild to place an obviously deranged unqualified incompetent into the WH and now they can happily watch the results of their actions. Bolton is a loudmouth spewer of groundless claptrap who has never been right about one thing in his entire life. A bitter marginalized contrarian who has now reached the pinnacle of his nefarious “career”. Bravo, buffoon.
In order to get to rattle the sabres against perennial whipping-boy Axis-of-Evil Iran and North Korea, Bolton will have to keep his mouth shut on Czar Putin, probably a trade-off with which he has no short term problems. And when friction with Putin develops over Trumper’s Bolton-influenced nuclear threats, he can try to worm the addle-brained nincompoop Trumper around to his lifelong anti-Soviet position.
We’ll see quickly enough what the world equity markets think of a return to American Neo-conservative war-mongering, as well as what the braindead American public thinks of it. Der Trumper is out tweet-touting the colossal waste of money on the Bloated Military in the recent omnibus, as well as the usual extravagant praise of our heroic sturmtruppen. So the rancid smell of a 1930s Hitlerian Wehrmacht build-up is now befouling the American atmosphere–apparently Trumper thinks it smells pretty sweet to FailedNation, Inc. By all appearances he seems right in this calculation.
The military ended up standing in the way of Prez Cheney’s desire to expand his various illegal wars of the first decade of the doomed 21st Century–particularly against demonic Iran and its “madman” clerics. It looks increasingly doubtful there will be much resistance by the hapless brass in the ongoing buildup to Der Trumper’s coming Wars of Insanity. As for our failed and useless Congress, they passed this constitutional portfolio off to the prez a long time ago. Now we’ll see the consequences of allowing ACTUAL madmen to run the show…
Another thing, with Bolton at the helm the USA is on it’s own no Allies will support us on this if we even have any anymore.
The stupid has no borders! In Brexit crisis, an alternative is to wag the dog. Brings solidarity …
The UK with May and Boris …
Detective Sergeant Nick Bailey, who came to the aid of a former Russian spy and his daughter was released from Salisbury District Hospital after treatment for exposure to a deadly nerve agent.
And the conservatives coming under pressure from ties to Cambridge Analytica founders in parent comoany SCL Group. Bannon, the Mercers, Facebook … what is de common denominator? Breitbart News, the alt-right and Israel.
What dem is going to take on Trump in 2020?
Hint == there’s a breed of dog named after him.
I find it ironic that, at the end of the day, Trump’s effectiveness in undermining democracy is likely to come by proving that the electorate is nowhere near smart or wise enough to be given the enormous power to elect the head of state.
Well, here’s hoping ol’ Putin really does have a string or two attached to the Strongman Trump puppet.
You’re assuming Putin disapproves of Bolton. My guess is if Putin did not directly choose Bolton, he certainly thinks he is an excellent choice.
Putin’s goal is to lower American standing in the world, create a schism in NATO, and remove American influence in the Middle East.
Can you name a person who is a better fit to achieve those goals?
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