The polling data is good, but too close for my comfort. I think the most amazing thing to me is that the latest Siena/New York Times poll of New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Nevada shows 40 percent of respondents place more trust in Trump than Biden to handle the coronavirus pandemic. That number should clearly be zero, and yet a combination of mental incapacity and stubborn partisanship leads four in ten voters in these key battleground states to say something so stupid and morally incomprehensible that it makes me want to stick my head in a furnace.
But, I guess it’s precisely because no one in their right mind would ever say that Trump should be preferred to anyone on COVID-19 that he can use this response as a yardstick of Trump’s floor. Somewhere close to forty percent of Americans are completely beyond redemption and would support Trump no matter what, even with their own daughters.
These surveys were conducted in tightly contested races that we decided by only a few points four years ago, so the actual number may be somewhat lower. Still, it’s insane that our country has descended into this kind of collective hell.
The main gist of the article is that Trump isn’t breaking through in states he needs to win, and these states were selected because they could help form an alternate map since Trump is doing poorly in Michigan and Arizona and needs to compensate somewhere else.
Trump may be struggling but if a three point in lead in New Hampshire and a four point lead in Nevada comforts you, you have steadier nerves that me.
The number to focus on is less the differential and more Trump’s topline. If you, like me, expect third party voting to max out at 2%ish nationally, Trump’s numbers in these states needs to be high 40’s, not mired in low 40’s.
It is one thing to say “trump is at 44% nationally but he might be 48-50% in key states allowing him to win the EC”. But these are low 40’s in the states he needs to win. Too close for comfort maybe in the sense that they aren’t signaling Biden probably winning by 12% nationally and therefore guaranteeing the Senate. But these numbers look pretty bad for the president to me.
Frankly any number is too close for comfort givin that he will and is deploying corrupt and illigal tactics to shave the margins.
As for his die hards:
Whether it’s playing “bumper-boats” in a lake, or trump flag waving or walking the streets with AR-15s, looking for a confrontation, the core problem is the same. They are a cult. A cult of insecurity lead by one of the most insecure people walking the planet today.
They’d rather eat a plate of shit than admit their flaws and cut bait. And so here we are.
The one positive is that we are clear on where everyone stands. There is value in clarity.
The GOP has metastasized into s cult over a generation and Trump’s high floor reflects that. Biden, if the election retains any semblance of civic legitimacy should still prevail regardless. But for us to renew a civic society and institutions, a generation plus of sustained cult detoxification and deprogramming will be needed. Alas, its unlikely I’ll live long enough to see that thankless task completed.
“That number should clearly be zero, and yet a combination of mental incapacity and stubborn partisanship leads four in ten voters in these key battleground states to say something so stupid and morally incomprehensible that it makes me want to stick their heads in a furnace.”
– there fixed it for you…
Right-wing authoritarians do what their rightful authority says. They will ALL be out to vote. Any state +6 Biden is a toss-up, unless you hilariously think Republicans won’t be doing any election fraud, unlike every other election for the past 20+ years.
Do your part. Vote early, in person.
Freedom ain’t free.
This is your periodic reminder that Herbert Hoover got 40% of the vote in 1932, and that was 3+ years into the Great Depression with unemployment rate at 24% and the economy having shrunk an average of 8% a year for three consecutive years.
Trump got 46% of the vote in 2016. If he gets that again this year and third party voters revert to 2008 levels, then Biden will win 52-52% of the popular vote (as did Obama). If the bottom falls out of Trump’s support and he loses, say, 10% of his 2016 supporters, he’ll *still* get 41-42% of the vote. (He’ll lose in a landslide, but he’ll still have an appallingly large base. More importantly, so will all the Republicans who get elected.)
There’s no way out of this but through. As San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich told his 2014 team when they were ahead against the two-time champion Miami Heat, “Keep pounding. Keep pounding. Keep pounding.”
One thing to keep an eye on are comments Trump and cronies like Roger Stone make between now and election day. Stone is goading Trump to seize actual ballot boxes in Nevada, which is the sort of thing we’d expect in an authoritarian dictatorship such as what exists in Belarus, etc. Trump is still very eager to look for ways to shut down independent journalists and news outlets. No matter how good the poll numbers look, we’ve got to really keep an eye out for any efforts to ramp up voter intimidation, to engage in efforts to fix the vote, etc. And this is the time where the anti-Trump side (as diverse and divergent as it is) needs to turn out in numbers too large to make efforts to rig the election viable. I really hope we’re ready.
Martin, you’ve been saying for years that Democrats have to contest rural places. They’ve got to go into desperate parts of the nation and offer hope. They need to stop taking corporate money if it prevents them from making the case for anti-trust reform. They need to go to fundamentalist churches and speak truth to power. They need to say, “These people who claim to care about you and your interests, don’t. They care about turning poor people against each other because the only thing they truly care about is cutting taxes and regulations for their rich friends. Give us a chance to bring Main Street back to life. To raise taxes on multi-nationals, to hold them accountable when they move jobs overseas, and to truly bring business home. It is possible but you’ve got to give us a chance.”
We need leaders who can carry that message and mean it. Then they’ve got to take on the corporate interests who butter their bread too.
This message need not win a majority in rural, desperate places. Perhaps one day but for now if it pulls over a few votes, that’s enough. Two or three percent of them would be huge. Could be the difference between a loss and a win or a win and a landslide.
I like your idea but it may already be too late.:And our guy has not shown any great interest in campaigning.
Here’s some cheery news for thought. There was a poll of AR-02 that has Biden +4 in a district Trump won in 2016 by +10. Note that the only AR poll done this year had Trump only up by +2. I have to wonder what is going on. The USC poll consistently has been Biden around +12 , although they don’t change the samples, but it’s higher now than it was during the conventions. I have a theory as to what’s going on. It seems the national polls put the race at 50-43 or thereabouts. If undecideds break for Biden as they usually do against an incumbent, then the final tally could be 55-44 or a 11 point victory that would likely help Biden to win Texas, Georgia and maybe even get to within low single digits in some southern states like TN. Maybe every now and then polls just chance upon a batch of undecideds that are the so called early adopters, i.e. the ones who already made the switch? That said all indications are that it is still a +7 Biden race, but there is room to grow imo.
Oh man, did anyone else throw up in their mouth when they read this in the NYT article?
But she did her part to end racism by voting for Obama!
Unfortunately, people like that have to die out before this country will be safe from Fascism proper. People like that are too god damn stupid to look beyond their own feelings.