Congratulations to everyone who has been working tirelessly to see that a public option is included in the Senate bill. Harry Reid listened to you. Apparently, the Democratic members of Congress listened to you, too, because they seem to be willing to vote for cloture to start debate on a bill with a public option. And, despite some skepticism, the White House is now convinced that they can get a public option through the Senate on the first pass. This is better than anything that was realistically imaginable in the spring.
When this process started, the Democrats could not rely on Teddy Kennedy or Robert Byrd to be healthy enough to vote. Al Franken wasn’t seated yet, and Arlen Specter was battling a Republican primary challenge from his right, not his left. With a bit of luck, a lot of patience, a bit of hardball (here in Pennsylvania and up there in Massachusetts), and a solid strategy, the president has done something at the beginning that I didn’t even think they could do at the end without resorting to the budget reconciliation process.
You are going to hear progressives complaining about the opt-out provision, and castigating the president for taking so long to come on board. Don’t worry. It’s what they do. The president has already won the biggest battle so long as Harry Reid is right that he has the sixty votes. If Reid doesn’t have the sixty votes, the president just made a giant error that was not necessary.
I’m all chicken little’d out, so I’m just going with the flow. Thank you for your analysis and efforts in shedding light on this process.
Hey, Chicken Little is a schmuck.
What has he ever done for anybody?
LOL.
What does this do for the House Progressive Caucus and their battle to have a Medicare +5 PO inserted into the House bill?
This helps. Many house wafflers were waiting for Senate Bill cover so this emboldens them some.
Really hope he has the votes.
The NY Times says he does not.
So we’ll see.
This is no longer chess, it’s poker.
I doubt any democrat will vote against cloture at this point, those still against can cover their bets later. LIEberman may be the exception that topples the gamble, but how long will he keep his chairs thereafter? I think he’ll toe the line…
Well, I should’ve said, “I hope he can get the votes.” My own — admittedly half-assed — headcount says he’s short by one to three votes (some combination of Lincoln, Lieberman and Nelson). Landrieu says she’s not for a filibuster, although she may vote no on passage, which is fine by me. Bayh will probably fall in line, as he usually does after making noise.
I’ll have to write this scenario (subscription required) up as soon as I get the time:
That goes along with this bit in the link above:
Now, it should be obvious that momentum will be lost for a public option post-Conference if one is defeated pre-Conference. Thus, the risk of doing this now just to please grumpy liberals is a real one.
With even Baucus on board, it’s hard to imagine Conrad, Nelson, Landrieu, Bayh or even Lieberman jumping ship. Talk about a ticket to be primaried! With major money for the opponent coming from out of state sources like us.
Did you see what Atrios wrote about CNN’s Dana Bash this afternoon? Gotta be the most intelligent thing she’s ever said .. by far
This would seem consistent with your analysis: http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/schumer-we-prevailed-on-the-white-house-that-public-optio
n-was-the-way-to-go.php?ref=fpblg
Of course over on TPM, the comments follow the usual line of reasoning (Obama didn’t care about the public option, he had to be pushed into it, failed to show leadership, yada yada . . .).
If there really are 60 votes for cloture, it seems likely that in the end there will be some Rep votes for the final bill, so Obama will get his “bipartisan” majority after all. There are always some who want to be on the winning side of a popular initative.
If this does work out, some of us owe apologies to some of the key players, including Reid. Right now I’m more nervous about the whole thing than I was a month ago. So close, the suspense is killing. When is the first vote likely to happen in the Senate? How many revote should we expect if there are holdouts in the early rounds?
The two Loonies, Lincoln and Lieberman, (and possibly Landrieu) bear close watching. But I have to say, Booman, it has been your reasoned optimism that has kept me sane through this. Kudos to YOU.
Seems like we can expect the usual posturing and posing from several “centrists” at the beginning of the filibuster, but it’s hard to imagine them staying with the GOP and shooting down the bill when it counts. They’d have to be willing to utterly destroy their political futures for the sake of their principles, which do not loom large in their makeups, or for the sake of some incredibly nutty calculation about becoming GOP stars, or something. Neither seems likely.
Don’t forget Bayh and Ben Nelson.
I think that a lot of the recalcitrants in the Senate will come around as the final vote nears. If it comes down to a handful of obstructionsts, they are going to be in the spotlight and under excruciating public pressure.
Thank you for keeping me sane during this sausagemaking. I don’t think I could have managed without your calm and steady analysis. It’s looking better than I even dared hope, especially now that they are talking about not waiting for 2013 for implementation.
it’s most definitely a gamble, and having reid in the lead doesn’t give me a great deal of confidence.
however, that being said, it’s a huge departure from his previous position.
l suspect, as drama averse as reid and obama are, there must be some very serious and nasty arm twisting going on behind the scenes. that, combined with continuing pressure from the progressive/liberal side, regardless of one’s views about it’s basis in fact, have certainly prodded the senate to a point l never expected to see.
if l understand this procedural minutiae at all…a questionable supposition at best… assuming he can get the senate caucus to hold firm on cloture for a bill with some kind of public option component, then some of the centrists <cough> have a bit of room to move regarding their final vote since only 51 are required to pass it.
we shall soon see.
I agree with you on all points.
In particular, if I were Obama, I would be concerned about betrayal from Reid himself.
His sea change on public option just isn’t trustworthy, imo.
l’m not coming to reids defense here…as l’ve long been one of his harshest critics vis-à-vis his performance as majority leader…but l find it unlikely he’d betray the president on this.
ergo, if there’s any blood on the floor afterward, l would posit that most of it will be harry’s.
Sure – about as unlikely as him performing a 175-degree flip.
Oh – wait.
Just sayin – it’s all starting to seem a bit too easy.
I agree with all of this, except for your closing comment that “if Reid doesn’t have the sixty votes, the president just made a giant error that was not necessary.”
What error? Allowing Reid to declare that the public option will be included? If a mistake is being made here, isn’t it Reid’s?
Where does the buck stop? It ain’t with Reid.
it will be Harry Reid’s victory. Obama has provided no leadership.
None.
Will the circular firing squads ever be a thing of the past? Have you learned nothing from being here, reading Boo’s cogent analysis? Let’s let the Republicans demonstrate the damage that comes from an insistence upon ideological purity.
Moreover, where is your gratitude? Who else, besides Obama, would stand a chance of getting this through the Congress? Hillary? Oh please!!
said anything about “ideological purity”? Or Hillary Clinton?
My comment was about Obama’s failure to lead.
Look above this: Booman seems to think that the buck stops with Obama, meaning he should get the credit if this works, and blame if it does not.
Why?
What Booman says is this: ” The president has already won the biggest battle so long as Harry Reid is right that he has the sixty votes.”
Read that sentence carefully. Obama has already won a battle in which he has done nothing, and Reid WINS nothing but is merely “right” if he produces the needed sixty votes through his hard work, leadership and courage.
the president gets the credit and blame. Reid does very little without being instructed.
whether instructed or not.
Reid has stood up and fought the good fight. I give no credit where there has been no effort.
right. Because Harry Reid is a liberal crusader. Do you even listen to yourself?
At least Reid is SOME kind of crusader.
Do you really believe Obama has done more to pass this legislation than Reid has?
You’re fucking kidding me, right? Now Harry Reid defies the president from the left? There’s stupid, and then there is willfully numbskulled.
If so you do it against all the evidence of his presidency.
I’ll forego the name calling.
I agree that Reid would not act contrary to Obama’s instruction. But that does not mean that Reid did not play a crucial role.
Specifically, Reid may well be THE individual most responsible for counting votes and knowing what is possible. This may sound easy, but I suspect it’s not.
Your reflexive Obama hate is really getting tedious. You just make your same assertion over and over again without a hint of evidence. If you have a reasoned argument against Boo’s analysis, let us know. Otherwise your personal obsessions are not of interest.
Hey BooMan, I’m a progressive and I don’t just complain. I write and call Congresspeople, protest at public sessions, go to meetings about actions at the School of Americas in Georgia (and I’m from Syracuse, NY), donate money to political candidates. So when you brand all progressives as perennial bitches, you sound like some neo-conservatives out there in blogo land. I have my criticisms of the President but I wish him well and am prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt as well as time to achieve health care reform. I don’t speak for all progressives just one but my voice should count for something, however microscopic it may be.
you should read that as ‘(some) progressives.’ It’s the silent ‘some.’
you may be thinking of the Greek silent some – it’s rarer in English. am now going to ponder whether a turnpike series will help Jon Corzine to take my mind off the tension re: how this will play all out.
.
SEARCHLIGHT, Nev. — A veteran of close elections, Reid is leaving nothing to chance. He is already airing TV ads and is about halfway to his goal of raising $25 million for the race, an unprecedented amount for Nevada. He raised $7 million in 2004.
Reid’s supporters point out he led the fight to stop the nation’s nuclear waste dump from being located in Nevada’s Yucca Mountain, and pushed through a bill that resulted in the state receiving more than $3 billion since 1998 from the sale of federal land.
“To think about losing Harry Reid at this time, with his ability to help the state, is just ludicrous,” Rogich says.
There’s almost no sign that the challenges of re-election are undermining Reid’s work as leader of the Senate’s 58 Democrats and two independents.
His prospects of winning re-election are intertwined with getting a health care bill through Congress, the most complex political task he has ever undertaken.
The long slog involves nightly meetings with White House officials and endless conversations with recalcitrant senators. Reid is careful in public remarks to note he supports a public option — a bow to Nevadans who favor a government-run insurance alternative.
Pollster NV: 2010 Senate (MasonDixon 10/6-8)
"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."Technical question: ford invoking cloture require 60 percent of the whole Senate or just 60 percent of those who vote on the question? What if some Thugs abstain?
60% of seated (not necessarily present) senators. So, if there are only 98 seated senators, you only need 59 votes for cloture.
Does Reid have the votes? One of my first questions was: How is this playing in Landrieu Land? When I want relatively sane commentary from that neck of the woods, I always go to BayouBuzz.com. So, does he have the votes? They report, you decide.
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/Louisiana/Politics/Louisiana_Sen._Landrieu_Shape_Obama_Health_Care_Deb
ate__9711.asp
For everyone blaming Obama for everything concerned with healthcare, he asked for all committees to be in conference before the August recess. There is no way he was happy about what Baucus did to him. You don’t use a bully pulpit unless you expect to get what your asking for, deadline set. But Baucus deliberately derailed him. O is the one who took a 10 point drop in the polls and was tied up in health care much longer than he wanted. He also did several townhalls and other appearances always calling for a public option. But, he must be hated because he called the revered by some PO, a tiny sliver of Reform. If you can’t afford health ins. because of pre-existing condition or have been dropped by ins when your sick, it is a tiny sliver. I think high-risk pool for the uninsured with these problems starts next yr. That will be very helpful to some.
O wanted a climate bill before the Copenhagen Conference. Thanks to all the Senate shenanigans, he doesn’t have one yet. I’m not even convinced we will get health care from the Senate. Some of them think it is their job to stop bad legislation and yes, they are dems.
Chuck Schumer tells all, says that the President was consulted before the move, duh, and that “he wanted to make sure that the strategy upon which we were embarking had the ability to carry through… I think substantively the White House probably preferred a stronger public option than a trigger” It goes on to say that Reid, and Schumer, convinced the WH that they could pull off this strategy and that Reid proceeded with Obama’s blessing.
Of course, that won’t stop some corners from bandying about that Obama wanted to stuff a trigger down Democrat’s throats but it certainly seals things in my mind. Looking forward to the coming battles, and your strategy explanations as we go forward.
Right. Why would the WH change their strategy if it has the potential to stall momentum? They needed to be assured that Reid could get it done because they had always assumed he couldn’t. If the PO was going to be in the bill, it was going to be because the House led the way and the president, as promised, fought for it in Conference.
If Reid doesn’t have the votes, I am going to blame Obama for listening to him.