Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) will announce his budget plan for 2012 tomorrow. Why are they introducing a plan for next year before they’ve even finished their work on this year’s budget. If you ask me, it signals that the Republicans are going to make a deal rather than let the government shut down. They know that their base is going to be angry about many of the provisions of the deal (including, especially, funding for ObamaCare) so they want to get out in front of the announcement by telling people that next year they’ll be cutting $4 trillion.
The Republican chairman of the House Budget Committee said his party’s budget proposal for 2012 would cut deficits by more than $4 trillion over the next decade, vowing to tackle costly entitlements like Medicare and Medicaid.
They’ll never succeed in passing Ryan’s plan but it allows them to provide a face-saving measure for all the blowhards who talked about getting everything they want despite not controlling the Senate or the White House.
Meanwhile, progressive Democrats aren’t going to like any deal either. It will likely include nearly $40 billion in cuts in spending just between now and September. A lot of that spending won’t be missed, but it won’t help the unemployment situation and some important programs are going to take a major hit. Hell, even Obama has proposed halving heating assistance in next year’s budget. So, we’ll have plenty to complain about.
So, I’m pretty sure the Republican leadership is going to capitulate, figuring they’ve won as much as they can. Whether the base of the left and right will get in line to pass their deal? I’m not sure yet that Boehner has control of his caucus. And Pelosi? She might vote against the deal herself.
Whether the base of the left and right will get in line to pass their deal? I’m not sure yet that Boehner has control of his caucus. And Pelosi? She might vote against the deal herself.
It depends on what the deal is. But I’m not as convinced as you that they are ready to cave. I think Ryan’s stunt might be cover because the GOP is ready to walk. We’ll see. Orange Julius’ best avenue is to let those in swing districts vote on a Pelosi crafted bill and the rest of the GOP vote against it, because the Teahadists are going to be PO’ed no matter what, so might as well expose as few GOPers as possible. Will that happen? Doubt it. But it would be the smart thing to do.
I think this is still a pretty volatile situation.
And I don’t think the views of anyone on the left who’s been paying attention are going to be swayed by who “wins” or “loses” the last move of this chess game. This game was lost a long time ago when we failed to pass a budget when we had a huge house majority and 59 senators. We couldn’t even get one GOP senator to vote for cloture on the 2011 budget in return for capitulation on extension of tax cuts for the rich. No last minute heroics by our negotiators is going to redeem that epic fail.
To use the hostage analogy our President makes regularly, it would be like handing over someone to the bad guys to be held hostage, and then patting yourself on the back when you brilliantly negotiate with the bad guys to get the hostage released. hooray, we got the hostage free!
My guess … since Boehner wants to have a resolution pass with a majority of republicans… is that there is a shut down over the weekend with an emergency vote on Sunday or Monday. Nothing much changes (except it costs a lot of money … but no one will pay much attention), they get their “shut down,” and they reach the deal they have already reached.
There’s definitely a deal in the works. Boehner’s been sighted around Arlington, Virginia enjoying himself at various eateries, looking pretty relaxed. Reports are that he doesn’t look like a guy who’s worried about the government shutting down, so the gossip is that he must either have a deal or know what the parameters are of a deal that’s being finalized. Right now what we’re seeing is theater for the benefit of the Republican faithful, particularly their most gullible members, the Tea Partiers.
LOL. Only bigger drunk in the world than Boehner is me! And frankly, since Dems are going to cave, why shouldn’t he celebrate?
I agree that they’re laying the groundwork, but I’m not as certain as you that it will end here (by end here, I mean this one fight ending, not the endless series of fights ahead). I give it a coin-toss that we have a deal.
I don’t see them caving…I see them shutting down the guvmint.
Why do you think Obama announced the re-election bid? Same thing, to distract lefties from the capitulations that will be made.
Obama is already on record as endorsing the Simpson cuts. Suely he will go farther for “bipartisanship”.